We have three fixtures on the bounce now (Hull KR away, Saints home, Salford away) that we lost last season. I sincerely hope we are not going for the full set of 2013 defeats on Friday.



Is it unthinkable?

KR away and Saints are borderline OK to stomach. Salford, at the moment, would not be!

If memory serves, prior to this month was the last time we lost back to back games September 2010? Hopefully on Friday we will see that proverbial 'backlash' on Friday.

Its what they call a black swan.

Sounds a little racist to me.

We are not going to win Super League from 5th. Forget that daft idea.



Leeds have done it twice in a row because they are seasoned playoff and Grand Final winners, and have the players to win in those big games.

Leeds winning SL in 2011 and 2012 isn't a black swan....they won it in 2004, 2007, 2008 and 2009 too.

No, the swan was winning from 5th twice in a row. It was an outlier that was not considered, and the consequences were questioning of the regular SL rounds. Post event rationalising why they did it is also classic Black Swan.

Well it depends what theory you use to explain it.



The theory may be "Leeds won SL the last two years because they are the best team at playoff rugby"



or it may be "Leeds won SL the last two years because they derived an advantage from finishing 5th"



But the evidence before the past two years says Leeds were the best team in playoff rugby but no other team got this advantage from finishing 5th.



So us not being Leeds, means we are unlikely to have an advantage in having a harder route through the playoffs. In both 2012 and 2010 we lost our first playoff game, and only stayed in the playoffs because we had a second bite. If we finish 5th and lose our first playoff game, end of season.

I think anyone who says Leeds had it easy from 5th is a fool. Wakefield gave them a tough game, the trip out to the south of France was extremely close and from what I can remember Leeds got the rub of the green from Thaler, then the week after was incredibly close and Tomkins dropping out probably played a big part in it.



At the final Leeds looked like they were playing at home, in comparison we were dazed by the occasion. I don't think there is any club other than Leeds who have the mentality to win it from that end of the table.

Could it be that the correlation is actually losing at Wembley, rather than the coming 5th in the league part?



Leeds lost to Wigan in 2011 and then to us in 2012 and maybe that was what made the difference in the Grand Final?



Could it be that if we get to Wembley this year we should go easy and try and get an advantage in the Grand Final by losing?

Losing tomorrow would be a disaster, even with the players missing through injury we should be beating Salford. Backlash from KR and saints wil be seen.

Not confident. Almost like being back in the bad old days again!

It's an interesting idea, and certainly worth considering. But if Leeds get to the cc final we would be sunk. They are so much better at losing Wembly finals than any other team, we would simply be out-lossed.